Why Profamy?

Our new method/software for households forecasting, known as ProFamy, has substantial merits as compared to the classic headship-rate method, which is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types only without size information, and deals with household “heads” but not other household members

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Services & Support

Read and Post Messages and View FAQs in the Product Support Forums

Email HCF Software Technical Support Staff:
support@profamy.com

Call HCF Technical Support Staff:1-919-945-1740; 1-919-618-5078

Households and Consumption Forecasting, Inc

Mission Statement

ProFamy.com aims at developing a user-friendly software and database package for household forecasting and its wide applications. The current main missions of innovative research at ProFamy.com are:

  • Develop the new method/program known as ProFamy into a user-friendly software package tool for household forecasting.
  • Develop the U.S. database of race-age-sex-specific demographic standard schedules for household forecasting at the national, state, and small area levels.
  • Conduct innovative research to strengthen the practical applicability of the ProFamy method.
  • Produce U.S. annual household forecasts for the years 2000 to 2050 by race at the national level, with a focus on elderly households and living arrangement forecasts and long-term care needs assessment.

Software

The current version of the ProFamy program is 1.0 which is written in Microsoft Visual C++ for the interface (including input and tabulation/graphic output) and in Fortran for computing; it runs under Windows and DOS. The ProFamy software is part of the preliminary outcome of the research project on demographic tool and database for household forecasting supported by NIH/NIA SBIR Phase I and Pahse II grants. We also thank the Population Division of the U.S. Census Bureau, NIA, NICHD, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, and Sabre System Inc. for supporting the prior related applied and basic scientific research in the past several years.

Input Database

Terms and conditions

AGREEMENT BETWEEN YOU AND ProFamy Project I have read the Introduction to “ProFamy: Software & the U.S. Database for Households Consumption Forecasting”. I wish to obtain a free copy of the ProFamy (trial version) software & the U.S. database package. I hope that after I sign this consent statement, the ProFamy project technician will assign me a password to enable me to download the ProFamy (trial version) software package, free of charge, and I will get free, updated versions before ProFamy is commercialized. In the trial use stage, I will also receive, free of charge, necessary technical service directly concerning the application of the ProFamy software package. I will provide feedback to the ProFamy project team about the ProFamy (trial version) software’s merits and drawbacks, as well as suggestions/ recommendations for improving its ease of use. I understand that I may use the trial version in my business for benefits and/or policy analysis and/or research/training. There will be no cost to me for participating in the application of the ProFamy software trial version. I will appropriately acknowledge the ProFamy method/software in publication(s) and/or written report(s) for which it was used (as indicated in the footnote of the ProFamy User’s Guide). I fully understand that I am not allowed to reproduce or distribute the trial version of the ProFamy software to anyone, and will comply with these restrictions; I will refer interested parties to the ProFamy Website. For communication purposes, I voluntarily provide my information in the sign up process to ProFamy project team. I understand that this information will be inaccessible to anyone except the few ProFamy project researchers who are responsible for communications and technical services.

Description of the Input Database

The input database includes standard schedules, summary measures, and base population. The standard schedules consist of probability of survival, marital/union status transitions rate, fertility rate, children leaving home rate, and migration rate. The race-sex-age-specific probability of survival is obtained from the Census Bureau. The model standard schedules of race-sex-age-specific rates of marital/union status transitions and race-age-parity-specific rates of marital and non-marital fertility were derived from various survey datasets including CPS in 1990 and 1995, NSFH in 1992/94 and 2002, NSFG in 1995 and 2002, and SIPP in 1996. The race-sex-age-specific children leaving home rate, international net migration rate (and domestic migration rate for projections at the state level) are estimated from the 5% census micro-datasets in 1990 and 2000. The procedures of estimating, smoothing, model fitting and extrapolating the model standard schedules can be found in following specifications. Summary measures contain race-sex-specific life expectancy at birth, race-parity specific total fertility rates, race-sex-specific general rates of marriage/union formation and dissolution, mean age at first marriage and births, race-sex-specific mean age of children leaving home, race-sex-age-specific proportion of living in group quarter, and total numbers of male and female immigrants and emigrants for the nation and each of 50 states and DC. These summary measures are estimated or obtained mainly through the released data/documents by the Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, the census micro-datasets, 12 waves of the CPS, NSFH, NSFG, and SIPP retrospective surveys conducted in 1980-2002, ACS surveys since 2000, and the relevant vital statistics data.

Online database

The online database products include four components: “Input Database”, “Summary Outputs”, “Detailed Outputs”, and Figures & Pyramids” for race-specific household projections from 2000 to 2050 for the entire United States, 50 states, and the District of Columbia.

  • The current online Input Database includes all input files (with file extension “.PRD”) of race-specific household projections. All files are downloadable after purchase. Upon installation of the ProFamy software, the input file will open automatically.
    • The online Input Database consists of specification of model and data type, standard schedules, summary measures, and the base population.
    • The specification of model and data type includes defining the starting year and ending year of the projections, data types of marital status occurrence/exposure (o/e) rate, institutionalized population, and migration.
    • The race-sex-age-specific standard schedules consist of probability of survival, marital/union status transitions rate, fertility rate, children leaving home rate, and migration rate. The race-sex-age-specific probability of survival is obtained from the Census Bureau. The model standard schedules of race-sex-age-specific rates of marital/union status transitions and race-age-parity-specific rates of marital and non-marital fertility were derived from various survey datasets including the Current Population Survey (CPS) in 1990 and 1995, the National Survey of Families and Household (NSFH) in 1992/94 and 2002, the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) in 1995 and 2002, and the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) in 1996. The race-sex-age-specific children leaving home rate, international net migration rate (and domestic migration rate for projections at the state level) are estimated from the 5% census micro-datasets in 1990 and 2000. The procedures of estimating, smoothing, model fitting and extrapolating the model standard schedules can be found in our technical report.
    • Summary measures contain race-sex-specific life expectancy at birth, race-parity specific total fertility rates, race-sex-specific general rates of marriage/union formation and dissolution, mean age at first marriage and births, race-sex-specific mean age of children leaving home, race-sex-age-specific proportion of living in group quarter, and total numbers of male and female immigrants and emigrants for the nation and each of 50 states and DC. These summary measures are estimated or obtained mainly through the released data/documents by the Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, the census micro-datasets, 12 waves of the CPS, NSFH, NSFG, and SIPP retrospective surveys conducted in 1980-2002, the American Community Surveys (ACS) since 2000, and the relevant vital statistics data.
    • The base population 100% race-sex-age-specific population and household distribution is from the 2000 census. The household structure by age, sex, and age is from U.S. Census Bureau’s 5% Public Use Microdata Samples (PUMS).
    • Please refer to three technical reports for household projections at national and state levels under Reports page for details.
  • The online Summary Outputs provide users with online tables for projected outputs in terms of household, elderly living arrangements, and population. All projected outputs are race-specific, depending on the number of races defined in each state and the District of Columbia. Please refer to the technical report, No. S_ALL_2008-01 under Reports page for details of number of races in each state.
    • There are four types of tables for projected household outputs in the online database: “number of households by type”, “percentage distribution of households by type”, “number of household by size”, and “percentage distribution of household by size”. Authorized users can choose to produce new cross-tabulations for a given state and to export outputs into excel files.
    • For elderly living arrangements, there are three types of tables in the online database: “percentage of the elderly among total”, “number of the elderly”, and “percentage of the elderly within age group”. Authorized users can choose to produce new cross-tabulations for a given state and to export the outputs into excel files.
    • There are two types of tables for projected population outputs in the online demo database: “summary statistics” and “population dynamics”. Authorized users can choose to produce new cross-tabulations and to export outputs into excel files.
    • Please note that users need to click “Get Data” button at the right side of the page every time in order to view the selected outputs.
  • The online Detailed Outputs provide users with online tables for projected outputs in terms of population and household. All projected outputs are race-specific, depending on state. Please refer to the technical report, No. S_ALL_2008-01 under Reports page for details of number of races in each state.
    • Detailed household outputs mainly include one-generation households, two-generation households, and three-generation households by different size/type, marital status, age and sex for each race in each forecast year ending with digit of 5 or 0. Authorized users can choice different age, sex, race, household type/size, or year to view the outputs.
    • Detailed population outputs include population distribution by age, sex, race, and marital status, and population living in institutions or living in private household by age, sex, and race.
    • Please note that users need to click “Get Data” button at the right side of the page every time in order to view the selected outputs.
  • The online Figures & Pyramids provide users with graphics for projected outputs in terms of the elderly by living arrangement, population, and pyramids by marital status for each race for a given state. Please refer to the technical report, No. S_ALL_2008-01 under Reports page for details of number of races in each state.
    • There are two types of charts for projected elderly living arrangements in online database: “percentage distribution of the elderly among total population by living arrangement”, “percentage distribution of the elderly with age group by living arrangement”, and “race comparison between different living arrangement”. Authorized users can customize the age, sex, and race to view the outputs.
    • There are three types of graphs for population output in the online database: “population size in million”, “percentage of the elderly aged 65+”, and “percentage of the elderly aged 85+”. Authorized users can customize the age, sex, and race to view the outputs.
    • Pyramids by marital status provide users with graphics of population composition by marital status and race in the projected years. Authorized users can choose different forecast years to display pyramids.